Third Quarter Highlights
Dear Clients and Friends,
I am pleased to present you with our first Quarterly Letter written by our CIO Meg Connelly. The purpose of this letter is to provide our clients with an update on the performance of the broader market along with some insights into what we see happening on a macro level. Since Meg and I both come from the investment world and we acknowledge that what feels familiar to us may not be to others. Just as I don’t know what an EKG stands for or would struggle to explain photosynthesis, those outside finance may not know some of our terminology. For that reason, we have added a glossary of terms at the end, that we hope will ease any confusion and answer those questions that you have been wanting to ask. On that note, we’d love to hear any financial or investment questions you’ve wanted to ask but haven’t felt comfortable voicing.
We are incredibly thankful for your support as we work to provide financial education, support, and empowerment for each and every one of you.
Market Recap – Third Quarter Review
Highlights:
- Large-cap stocks continue their rally: The S&P 500 is up 14.8% year-to-date (YTD), with an 8.1% gain in the third quarter (Q3). It is on track for a third straight year of double-digit returns.
- Small-cap strength: The Russell 2000 rose 12.4% in Q3, benefiting from the Fed rate cut.
- Global markets: International markets are up 25.3% aided by a weaker U.S. dollar.
- Alternative assets: Gold is up 60% since January 1; silver nearly 50%; and Bitcoin, 25%.
It’s hard to believe that “Liberation Day” was only six months ago on April 2. On that day, Trump’s tariff announcements accelerated an ongoing sell-off, driving the S&P 500 down 20% from its February 19 high to its April 8 low. Remarkably, the index recovered those losses by June 30. Since then, the S&P 500 has gained another 8.1% and is up 14.8% YTD. If this holds, 2025 will mark the third consecutive year of double-digit returns, above the S&P’s 50-year average annual return of 10–11%, or about 7% after inflation.
After a sluggish start to the year, small caps roared back in Q3. The Russell 2000 jumped 12.4%, boosted by September’s Fed rate cut and prospects for cheaper borrowing. While it hints at broader market leadership, the rebound largely reflects small-cap companies’ greater sensitivity to lower rates. The index is now up 10.4% YTD.
International markets climbed 5.3%, shrugging off a stronger dollar. YTD, international stocks are outpacing the U.S., up 25.3%, powered by a 10% drop in the dollar.
Bonds held steady anticipating rate cuts. Credit spreads remain near record lows, signaling investor confidence, though we’re watching for any cracks in credit quality. Private credit remains the go-to for riskier borrowers hunting for funding.
Precious metals outpaced equities in Q3. Gold soared 30% in Q3 and is up 60% YTD, while silver jumped 17% and 48%, respectively. Bitcoin was up 7% for the quarter and 25% YTD, boosted by fresh inflows to recently launched ETFs.
Outlook
As we enter the fourth quarter, against the backdrop of a government shutdown, the strong gains so far are not guaranteed to continue. Further rate cuts are expected, which would be welcomed by businesses and consumers, though the immediate impact has been limited. Mortgage rates have eased to ~6.3% from 7.0% at the start of the year but remain well above pre-COVID levels. Looking ahead, inflation, employment trends, and corporate balance sheet strength will be critical indicators for markets.
What this means for your portfolio
The strong rebound across asset classes this year highlights the importance of staying invested and diversified. Equities, both U.S. and international, have delivered outsized gains, but leadership has shifted across segments, underscoring the value of global exposure. Fixed income remains stable as rate cuts begin, while gold and other alternatives continue to provide meaningful diversification benefits. As we enter Q4, maintaining balance across equities, bonds, and alternatives remains key to managing risk and capturing opportunities in a still-uncertain environment.
Glossary
Benchmark/index – A group of stocks, designed to represent a specific market or segment, such as large-cap, small-cap, or international equities. It allows investors to track market trends and compare investment performance.
Credit spread – The difference in yield between a corporate bond and a comparable U.S. Treasury bond, reflecting the extra return investors demand for taking on credit risk.
Equity – Ownership in a company, typically through stock, that is a claim on the future profits and potential capital appreciation.
Fixed Income – Investments that pay regular interest and return principal at maturity, such as bonds or Treasury securities. They provide steady income and are generally used to preserve capital and reduce portfolio volatility.
Market Capitalization (cap) – The market price of a stock multiplied by the number of shares that are issued and outstanding. Stocks are commonly grouped into large, medium, and small market cap buckets.
MSCI World ex USA – A commonly used index that tracks the performance of foreign stocks. The index can be separated into developed and emerging market components.
Private Credit – Non-bank lending, where investors provide loans directly to companies that don’t issue public debt, typically in exchange for higher yields and customized terms.
Russell 2000 – A widely used index that reflects the performance of small, domestically focused companies across diverse industries. Market cap ranges from roughly $300 million to $2 billion.
S&P 500 – Perhaps the most widely followed index in the world, the S&P 500 consists of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the U.S. Large cap is commonly defined as $10 billion+, but varies widely. As of this writing, the largest stock in the S&P 500 is Nvidia with a market cap of $4.5 trillion. Coca-Cola, also an index constituent, has a market cap of $287 billion.
Yield – The income and return on an investment depicted as a percent of the price.
Investment advisory services offered through Equita Financial Network, Inc., an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Equita Financial Network also markets investment advisory services under the name Visible Wealth Planning. The foregoing content reflects our opinions and is subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that the statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Indexes are not available for direct investment. All investing involves risk, including the potential for loss of principal. There is no guarantee that any investment plan or strategy will be successful.
