2025 Market Recap: Growth, AI Risks & What’s Next for Investors
Market Recap – 2025 Highlights
By nearly all measures, global markets achieved another stellar year of performance. Large-cap stocks continued their rally, international markets outperformed the U.S., and precious metals saw significant gains. However, growing concerns surrounding investments in Artificial Intelligence (AI) have introduced a note of caution.
Key Performance Metrics:
- Large-cap stocks The S&P 500 gained 17.9% in 2025 (2.7% in Q4), marking the third consecutive year of double-digit returns.
- Global markets International equities outperformed the U.S. due to a weaker dollar and improving fundamentals, with emerging markets (MSCI Emerging Market Index) increasing an impressive 33%.
- Fixed Income While overshadowed by equity returns, fixed income generated solid mid-to-high-single digit total returns across U.S. Treasuries, Investment Grade, and High Yield bonds.
- Precious metals Gold and silver spot prices rose significantly, up 67% and 144%, respectively.
- Crypto After a strong rally in late summer/early fall, Bitcoin finished the year down 5%. Despite the decline, Bitcoin has delivered a 77% annualized return in the last 3 years.
Looking Ahead: The AI Dilemma
In recent months, questions have surfaced about how sustainable the AI boom really is, particularly for large technology companies whose stock prices depend heavily on AI’s success. Comparisons to the dot-com/broadband era have surfaced, fueled by massive spending on data centers and increasingly complex relationships between private AI firms and public companies. At times, this has created unease and added volatility in certain stocks.
We view these conversations as healthy. It’s important to understand how much is being invested in AI, how those investments are funded, and whether these investments will ultimately pay off. While we have reasonable insight into the first two, there is little visibility into the long-term returns these investments will generate.
AI is often compared to the Industrial Revolution or the rise of the Internet. If that comparison holds, the true impact will extend well beyond technology companies. According to Blackrock, labor accounts for 55% of the cost for U.S. business, and AI has the potential to improve labor productivity across many industries, driving down costs. Financial Services, Healthcare, and Industrial companies are likely to benefit early as they thoughtfully incorporate AI into their operations.
The key question remains: will businesses and consumers find enough value in AI to support today’s level of investment? With more than one-third of the S&P 500 tied to the future of AI and U.S. large-cap stocks comprising a meaningful share of most portfolios, how we manage this exposure matters. It’s something we’ve been thinking about carefully and intentionally as we steward your investments.
How We’re Positioning Portfolios
We anchor our approach with a few core beliefs:
- AI is transformative and will remain an important theme over the next several years.
- Its greatest benefit will come through improved productivity and profitability across the broader economy.
- There will be winners and losers, which means volatility is likely to continue among the most visible AI names.
Over time, we expect leadership in the market to broaden beyond the largest companies building AI infrastructure, as more industries begin to benefit from its use. This doesn’t require a sharp pullback in today’s AI leaders, although that can certainly happen. History offers a useful perspective: following the Internet and broadband boom of the late 1990s, sector performance diverged sharply. While the S&P 500 fell 38% from 2000 to 2002, declines were concentrated in Technology and Communications Services. By contrast, Financials and Healthcare slipped just 2% and Consumer Staples gained 5% in this same timeframe. On the other hand, a more gradual shift as other sectors gain momentum is not out of the question. Regardless of magnitude, the timing of these shifts is impossible to predict and we focus on thoughtful positioning rather than trying to time the market.
In client portfolios, we continue to use the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) as a core building block for U.S. large-cap exposure. To avoid over-concentration in the biggest AI-driven stocks, we complement it with the Vanguard Value ETF (VTV). This gently tilts exposure toward Financials, Healthcare, and Industrials—areas we believe are well positioned to benefit as AI becomes more widely adopted.
Looking to small and midcaps, on average, we expect these companies to take longer to integrate and ultimately see benefits from AI. Having benefited less from the recent hype, they could outperform the S&P 500 if an AI-related market correction were to occur. On the margin, however, the resumption of interest rate cuts from the Fed is more important for these stocks.
We continue to believe that global diversification is warranted, along with exposure to a basket of specialty ETFs that includes the iShares Global Infrastructure ETF (IGF) and the Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF (AAAU)
Credit spreads remain near record lows, signaling investor confidence, though we’re watching for any cracks in credit quality. Private credit remains the go-to for riskier borrowers hunting for funding. Two private credit bankruptcies in September, First Brands (an auto parts manufacturer) and Tricolor (a subprime auto lender and dealership) appear isolated for the time being.
As always, our goal is to participate in long-term innovation while staying grounded, diversified, and aligned with your broader financial goals.
